The upcoming presidential election : towards greater stability or back into political turmoil ?

Ivory Coast's next presidential election is to be held in October 2015. Is the country ready ? Has enough stability been regained since the last political crisis so that the result of this election will not be disputed, as it was in 2010 ? Unfortunately, since the country gained independence from France in 1960, the implementation of the democratic process has been somewhat modest, to say the least. Indeed, in over 50 years the country has known only four different presidents :  the first one, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, ruled the country for 33 years in a single-party system -the party being quite ironically called the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI)- until he died in 1993 ; the next one was overthrown by a military coup, then Laurent Gbagbo of the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) came to power, and asserted his authority against rebels rallied to Alassane Ouattara's Rally of the Republicans (RDR) in a political and military conflict which lasted five years, from 2002 to 2007.

     Laurent Gbagbo, happy as he raises his thumbs up

One may think that Ouattara was in the wrong as he defied the authority of the position which he seeked and now holds, but it needs to be told that he was shunned from power by a set of discriminatory laws passed by his predecessors which forbade him from running for president because of his origins (Ouattara is from the North of a country, home of a different ethnic group than that of Gbabgo's, for instance). The conflict led to the death of thousands of Ivorian citizens : after 33 years of dictature, the concept of citizenship and democracy began to painstakingly settle in. The conflict was put to an end thanks to the intervention of the UN forces and the French forces of the Opération Licorne who enforced the truce while an agreement was found : Gbagbo was to remain in power with Ouattara as Prime Minister until the next elections in 2010.

                               Ouattara, who does not look amused

These elections took place under the scrutiny of an independent commission and that of the Counstitutional Council of Ivory Coast, in favor of Gbagbo. It opposed outgoing president Gbagbo and Ouattara, who won with a comfortable advance (54,1% accorded to the independent commission, whose opinion was supported by the UN). The Constitutional Council however gave Gbagbo winner, and thus another conflict ensued. France and the UN intervened again, trying to keep the peace, and setting Ouattara as president. But Gbagbo gave orders to arrest Ouattara, and triggered a civil war which caused 3000 deaths. Gbagbo was therefore arrested and jailed in La Haye, where he will be tried next July for crimes against humanity.

One can understand why the upcoming election is worrisome : there has never been any peaceful transition in the country. One can only hope that since Gbagbo is out of the game the old grugdes will be overcome : but it turns out that even though he is imprisoned, Gbagbo is still running the FPI and still receives support from politicians who fight for his release. The political struggle does not look over. The only hope is that if the next results are to be contested, at least the conflict will only be political and that there will be no bloodshed. Perhaps France should take pre-emptive action in order to maintain the peace, but that would be perceived as political interference and a reminder of colonial times... The Ivorians are on their own, but this election may be the first towards an era of greater stability for the country.

Marius

Sources :
http://news.abidjan.net/h/517456.html
http://news.abidjan.net/h/517449.html
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crise_politico-militaire_en_C%C3%B4te_d%27Ivoire